Anil Taneja,
Director,
LITOSonline.com
April 3, 2025
It is perhaps too early to make firm judgements, only a few hours after the Trump administration has launched a tariffs war on rest of the world. Much could change, and soon. There will probably be retaliation soon by other countries and by the EU. But we should also expect negotiations behind closed doors to take place too, and, hopefully, some kind of agreements and concessions so that the world economy does not enter a recession.
For now this is how the situation looks like with the new tariffs imposed by USA:
Brazil and Turkey, with a 10% duty imposed on them, have got away lightly. Quartzite exporters and marble exporters can handle these increased duties.
Vietnam was becoming a big exporter of quartz to USA, a 46% duty will hit it badly.
China was already facing high duties, now it will be practically out of the US market.
No mention of Egypt- so its exports should not be affected.
India has been hit with 26%, everything, quartz, porcelain, granite, will be hit hard but its competitors in Far East countries have been hit even harder.
20% on EU surely hits the Italians and Greeks exporters. Also the porcelain and quartz exporters stand to lose competitiveness.
Perhaps more important, with inflation in USA likely to shoot up, cost of building materials having increased, the much anticipated construction boom will fizzle out. New housing prices, already high, will become even more unaffordable. Interest rates in US will surely increase. Overall demand will decrease. Cash flow pressures on US importers of stone in USA will increase. It is possible many smaller importers will go bankrupt, if the US market slows down considerably.
In other words, unless the new tariffs are removed or lowered considerably, and soon, big trouble lies ahead.
Everyone will be looking for alternative markets. But where are they? Most likely the local market in India will be only slightly affected, so demand there should remain stable.
NOTES:
April 11, 2025. The original article was published a few hours after the tariffs were announced by the US administration on 2 April, 2025. However, on 9 April the administration announced a 90 day pause on these tariffs. As of today the prevailing tariffs are 10% on almost every country and 145% on China, a vastly different situation.
April 16, 2025. The uncertainties resulting from the tariff wars is creating changes in our MORALEMETER. As of now, this is how it looks: https://www.litosonline.com/en/content/moralemeter
